Where does Brexit go subsequent? What can Boris Johnson do? Only a idiot would supply a prediction, however here are some doable paths.
Johnson will get a deal
Perhaps the prime minister agrees to a border in the Irish Sea. Perhaps the European Union cracks and affords some modifications to the components of the deal struck by his predecessor, Theresa May, that deal with the contentious Irish border query.
But can he get it by Parliament? Maybe. To accomplish that, he would want to dramatically cut back the variety of “Spartans” — the 28 pro-Brexit Conservatives who by no means voted for May’s deal. Two of them, Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers, are now in the cupboard, so they’d in all probability get on board. To persuade the remaining, Johnson might argue that he had obtained the very best accessible deal, and that to reject it might imply breaking his pledge to get Britain out of the EU by October 31. Johnson argues that failure would imply extinction for the Tories, and would doubtlessly put Brexit in jeopardy.
Johnson goes for no-deal
The authorities’s authorized consultants discover a loophole in the legislation that was handed final week to power Johnson to hunt an extension. Or Johnson merely ignores it, or in some way persuades the EU to reject his request for an extension. Britain leaves the EU with none settlement October 31, and Johnson, needing a majority in Parliament, seeks an election.
The consequence of that election would rely a lot on how a no-deal Brexit performed out. If, as Johnson should hope, the disruption is minimal, he would be capable to kill off Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, and current himself as the person who had lastly delivered. The aim could be to choose up seats in Brexit-supporting areas to offset these misplaced in locations indignant with what the federal government had executed. The hazard for Johnson could be that of an election fought towards a backdrop of roads blocked by vehicles queued exterior ports, shortages of meals and medication, manufacturing facility closures, and a humiliating British return to the EU’s negotiating desk, asking for a deal in spite of everything.
Johnson backs down
He stated he’d slightly be useless in a ditch than delay Brexit past October 31. But except he can get a deal, the legislation now says he should. Faced with the specter of mass resignations from his authorities if he refuses to obey the legislation, Johnson agrees to request an extension and, with it secured, asks Parliament for an election. This time, the opposition Labour Party agrees. Britain holds its first December election in practically 100 years, with Johnson arguing that the individuals should tackle Parliament.
Having failed to fulfill his “do-or-die” pledge to get Britain out of the EU, Johnson fights the election a weakened determine, with the Brexit Party telling voters that solely Farage can get the job executed. The pro-Brexit vote is cut up, and Labour is the most important get together in Parliament. Jeremy Corbyn is on the purpose of turning into prime minister, with a dedication to a different Brexit referendum.
Johnson resigns or is compelled out
He can’t break the legislation, he can’t get around the legislation, however he gained’t obey the legislation, so the prime minister publicizes he’s resigning. Or he tries to go for no-deal however loses a vote of confidence and is compelled to give up. Who will succeed him?
The Conservatives would wish to pin a “Brexit betrayal” onto somebody apart from themselves, after which attempt to defeat them in the inevitable election. Johnson would possibly counsel to Queen Elizabeth II that she invite Corbyn to type a authorities, however he may need much less help amongst members of Parliament than Johnson. Possibly higher from Labour’s viewpoint could be to put in another person with a short-term mandate to hunt a Brexit extension. Labour would block anybody else from their ranks, so a extra impartial determine could be wanted.
Former Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke is extensively revered, and too previous to pose a lot threat of making an attempt to make his keep as prime minister a lengthy one. Brexit is delayed, and an election is on, with Johnson in search of a mandate for no-deal, and Corbyn arguing for a second referendum. Even here Labour is cut up. The get together’s deputy chief, Tom Watson, will make a speech Wednesday arguing that the second Brexit referendum ought to come earlier than the election.